The London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CBER) says the global economy will start being re-ordered from 2018 with Nigeria breaking into the world’s top 30 largest economies in 2028.
In its forecasts, the CBER used three elements for each country: a real GDP growth forecast, an inflation forecast and a currency forecast. While the first two are likely to be accurate on an annual basis to within 1% or in some cases 2%, currencies have a way of fairly wildly defying forecasters’ predictions.
Nigeria’s growth in the economy forecast is expected to be due to favourable demographics. On the downside, however, the CBER said political instability and violence, which will deter investment, would act as a bane to the country’s economic development.
This year’s research is updated to take account of the likely surplus of energy and falling oil and gas prices in the 2020s, weaker commodity prices than had previously been expected and the sell-off of some emerging market currencies in mid-2013.
“2013 shows only two changes in the top 20 economies – Russia overtakes recession-stricken Italy to gain 8th place and Canada overtakes India as a result of the collapse of the rupee to retake its position as the second largest economy in the Commonwealth and the 10th largest economy in the world. Below the top 20, some of the changes are more dramatic. Iran drops from 21st position to 30th as sanctions bite; South Africa drops from 28th out of the top thirty (to 33rd) as strikes, slow growth and a weakening currency affect its position,” CBER said in its report.
“By 2018, the emerging economies are on the move. Russia is up to a high point of 6th; India 9th, Mexico 12th, Korea 13th and Turkey 17th. Thailand (provided that political stability returns) gets into the top 30 at 27th.
“By 2023, India and Brazil are on the march. India is up to 4th, Brazil to 5th. Taiwan breaks into the top 20 at 19th.
“By 2028, the league table is being reordered. China has moved to No 1; India to No 3. Mexico is in the top ten at No 9. Korea and Turkey are 11th and 12th and have overtaken France. As symbols of the new world order, Nigeria, Egypt, Iraq and the Philippines break into the top 30.
“All the latter group depend on maintaining or in some cases regaining political stability,” the report concluded.