President Goodluck Jonathan will lose the presidential election by a slim margin, DaMina Advisors, a leading provider of risk advisory services for emerging markets registered in five countries, predicts.
DaMina Advisors, says Jonathan the Peoples Democratic PArty( PDP) candidate will be defeated by the All Progressive Congress Candidate Gen. Muhammadu Buhari by 700,000 votes, however, both candidates will attain the second constitutional requirement of getting at least 25% of the vote in 24 of the 36 states of the Federation.
Their forecast also suggests a possible run-off.
Buhari will win in Lagos, and make single digits gains in the south-west, they estimated.
He will also win convincingly in the North-East but lose to Jontahn in the South-South and South West.
“A Buhari win on the 14th followed by a strong showing by the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) party at the 28th February governorship races will see Nigeria edge closer and closer to a more normal bifurcated two-party system with the APC on the centre-left and the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on the centre-right.
“While the complex and tortured histories of both parties is too long to recount here, essentially while the APC looks to the build a strong decentralized managed capitalist social democratic state, with a slight leftward PanAfrican tilt towards China-Russia; the PDP looks to continue its generally centralised, pro-Western neoliberal free market capitalist democratic state, with a more insular Pan Nigerian nationalist neo-colonial tilt.”
The company claims it used VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model to arrive at its conclusion.
Read the full report here: DaMina 2015 NIGERIA ELECTIONS OUTLOOK